Mike Sterling's Progressive RuinAlone, unmourned, and unloved since 1969

Looking back at your predictions for 2011, part (sigh) one.

§ January 12th, 2012 § Filed under predictions § 13 Comments

Okay, I didn’t see any easy way through this except by just going through all the predictions, so…well, that’s what I’m a’gonna do. Let’s see if I can get through last year’s predictions in just a couple of posts so I don’t drive everyone crazy.

And I’m still taking predictions for 2012…make your pal Mike work for his blogging dollar next January!

Let’s start with my predictions, because it’s my site, so there:

I think DC will hold the $2.99 price through the year, because not doing so would certainly look bad for them, wouldn’t it?

Well, yeah, they did, but this was probably a “gimme” given the promotional push they gave to the whole “holding the line at $2.99” thing. A couple of books went to the $3.99 price point following the New 52 relaunch, but by and large, most of DC’s books are still at the lower price. And this year a couple more titles are going to the $3.99 format, but still, DC’s holding on to that $2.99 cover price across the majority of the line.

Sales will continue to suffer on redundant books (i.e. the thirteen or so Thor mini-series, for example) but no one will learn any lessons from this.

This was more me griping than really making a prediction, though I will say DC’s multiple Batman and Green Lantern titles seem to be doing okay. For now.

Someone will put out a complete edition of William Overgard’s Rudy. (Hey, let a boy dream.)

DENIED.

A new Swamp Thing series will be announced by the end of the year, firmly planted (heh) in the DC Universe. And it will turn out to be awesome.

Well, well, well…whaddaya know. I’m not sure I’m going to throw the word “awesome” at it quite yet, but we’ll see once we start getting some actually Big Green Swamp Machine action goin’ on in there.

The rerelease of Grant Morrison and Frank Quitely’s Flex Mentallo in a new collected edition will be met with confusion and fear from the usual suspects.

Um, well, this would require the book having come out. …Maybe this year!

And I think Wizard will end its print edition and move solely online…if it continues to exist at all.

Ayup. …Actually, I have no idea if the online version is still happening.

And now, on to what you guys had to say:

• Mike says:
  

  not a prediction- but I would love a year where a powerful character or entity isn’t easily bamboozled and ‘taken over’– skrulls, black lanterns, chaos and other things become tiresome!

  where’s me plots based on sexy mayors!?

  Pretty sure we didn’t get a year without a character getting “taken over,” as that’s Standard Superhero Plot #17. Can’t think of any specific examples, but considering I just read a new comic this very week with that plot device, I’m pretty sure it must have happened at some point last year.

  And we’ll probably have to wait on the Dark Knight Rises film before we get any “sexy mayor” plots with Nestor Carbonell as Gotham’s Mayor Garcia.

• The Sniffer – whom I think I somehow annoyed and drove away from the site…er, sorry! – predicted
  

  Joe Quesada will end his reign as Editor in Chief at Marvel. He will be given another job within the Disney Company, higher up. He will be replaced by a Disney insider, not currently someone working for Marvel.

  Half a hit, with Quesada definitely being replaced as Editor-in-Chief, but by another Marvel dude.

• Kurt says
  

  Marvel and DC will be forced to merge, due to low sales, creating a new company called Marcy. The best-selling book will be their team up book, Brave & The Two-in-One.

  Oh, you. …Actually, I wonder if there will ever be a circumstance where the two companies would merge? Maybe if Warner Bros. sells DC to Disney, and Disney shooshes ’em all together into a big ol’ comics goulash. “WALT DISNEY AND STAN LEE PRESENT BATMAN AND THE JUSTICE AVENGERS IN ‘IF THIS BE THE KRYPTONIAN ETERNALS!'”

• Fellow Swamp Thing fan Rich suggested
  

  Swamp Thing will return, but in the mainstream universe. His story will become far less cerebral as he regularly interacts with folks in Spandex.

  A HIT, A VERY PALPABLE HIT. That Search for Swamp Thing mini certainly wasn’t very cerebral…in fact, it was pretty dumb…but the current series isn’t that bad, I think. Swampy was also certainly interacting with the superhero crowd in all that Brightest Day brouhaha and that Search mini…and there were a handful of cameos in the first New 52 issue, with Alec Holland talking directly to terribly-costumed Superman.

• TomO says
  

  DC will lose patience waiting for everyone to flock to their titles now that they are all $2.99, and we’ll see a line-wide increase to $3.99 announced by October 2011.

  A miss, thankfully, primarily because of the success of New 52 relaunch which I don’t think any of us really expected. (The relaunch, not the success, though I suppose it applies to both.)

  There will be a lot of flailing about with the industry finding a digital platform and model embraced by the readership at large. Nothing major happens in 2011, as I still think we have another year before an iTunes model pops up that dominates industry wide.

  I’m still not 100% “up” on the digital thing, as I have my hands full selling physical products, though I think DC and Marvel directly marketing comics with digital download codes through comic shops counts as pretty major.

  Pogs come back in a big way!

  Oh thank God this didn’t happen.

• Steve predicted
  

  At least one independent publisher will go completely day-and-date with digital releases.

  Dark Horse did, I believe, and I’m pretty sure Archie had already.

  Marvel and DC won’t go fully day-and-date, but one of them will try it with an *ongoing* series (priced the same as the print version).

  A hit, I think, with the previously-mentioned comics with prepacked download codes.

  The Thor and Captain America movies will make a ton of money, but not quite as much as was hoped for, leading some to question whether the superhero movie is dead and whether Marvel’s strategy in that arena is sound, even though they make a ton of money.

  Well, according to Box Office Mojo, Captain America made about $370,000,000 ($140,000,000 budget) and Thor took in $450,000,000 ($150,000,000 budget), so they turned a profit, I suppose, depending on what other promotional expenses and whatnot is involved there. So while some folks in comics fandom will continue to predict the superhero film genre is kaput, I think it’s still got some life in it.

  Fear Itself will make a relative ton of money, but not quite as much as hoped for, leading some to question whether the event comic is dead and whether Marvel’s strategy in that arena is sound, even though it makes a relative ton of money.

  I will note that the sales on the most recent Fear Itself series Fearless ain’t a patch on its parent series. I think the strategy of keeping certain events going on way past the initial rush of interest and excitement is the lesson to be learned here.

  DC will launch another new ongoing Superman book.

  Technically, I guess they did, even if they were just relaunches of previously existing titles. But I expect we’ll have to wait for the whole New 52 thing to shake out before any new ongoing Superman titles pop up. (Frankly, though, I hope they don’t…two is plenty.)

  Dynamite and BOOM! move to the “front” of the Previews catalog.

  Not yet! But they’re at the beginning of the alphabet, so they’re not too far away!

• aj had a numbered list, like so
  

  1) Grant Morrison will be revealed for the acid tripping megalomaniac he truly is.

  I know some people weren’t happy with some comments he make in his Supergods book, but I don’t know that was the result of megalomania.

  2) corollary to the above, Morrison books will drop in value and regard when he flashes crowds at ComiCon panels, convinced that like Batman, he needs “world-wide exposure”

  Don’t think any of that happened, but I’m reasonably certain that would have driven up sales on Morrison books!

  3) Xmen comics will become a convoluted, confusing, self referencing mess that…well. um. nix that that one. thanks.

  I think I’ll be nice and refrain from commenting on that one!

  4) Although the ramp up to digital has begun, most companies still won’t be able to see past the iPad, and the expense of that device will prevent any meaningful adoption of digital/mobile comics distribution. In a misguided conception that the willingness to pay iPad prices extends to everything else, publishers will assume they can set any price they want. (relates only to digital distribution)

  Gah, I really don’t know enough about this stuff, as my eyes just kind of glaze over whenever people start talking about “digital platforms” and such and hey, those little furry things running around my feet don’t have anything to do with me so I’ll just ignore them, said the dinosaur. I do know that nobody ever seems to like the price points of any digital releases from the big companies, so I suppose that last part of the prediction seems to ring true.

  5) Price wars between publishers will calm down, settle at 2.99 and 3.99, and everyone will still complain about it. (justly so)

  Prices still at about those levels! And nobody likes that $3.99 price point (unless it’s for a thicker comic…which most of the time it isn’t).

  6) JLA will be cancelled, lacking editorial directives that can make a cohesive book.

  Again, technically true. I’ll let you decide if the current Justice League book is cohesive or not.

  7) BOOM Studios will have their reach exceed their grasp, licensing things that they can’t really support in the market. (this will be disappointing to me)

  They seem to be doing okay so far. Hellraiser, Planet of the Apes, Elric all have modest but loyal followings, and Peanuts seems to be off to an okay start. Nothing earth-shaking or blockbusting, but they sell.

  8) Walking Dead will have season two, and rabid fans will boycott it.

  I haven’t heard any boycotts yet, but just from what I’ve gleaned from online reaction, people are reacting less well to the second season than the first one. Heck, people started disliking the series with episode two, as anything was bound to suffer in comparison to the premiere.

  9) Robert Kirkman finally goes bat-sh#$ loco, buys out all the other Image partners, renames it Kirkman’s Image Comics, and ban any creator from working on any book anyone else has ever done before.

  As amusing as this would have been, alas, it did not happen.

  10) http://www.themeangeek.com will gain precisely 1 listener, raising comics awareness to three whole people.

  I hope I helped at least at little in you achieving this goal!

• Thwacko noted
  

  1)At least one major publisher (though not necessarilly one of the “big two”) will start digital only releases on some (or maybe all) titles.
  2)One of the second or third tier publishers will go out of business or be bought out by a bigger publisher.
  3)The return of licensed character titles to the big two.

  Haven’t heard of any digital only releases, aside from maybe some back catalog material on previously-released print items. Maybe I missed something? And there are so many comic publishers I’m sure someone went out of business, though I haven’t heard of any acquisitions. But then, I wasn’t keeping track. …Some follow-up on your predictions this is turned out to be, huh?

  As far as licensed properties go at Marvel and DC…when I discussed this last time, I mentioned all the Stephen King and Anita Blake and such that Marvel had, but I forgot about DC’s various video-game tie-in comics. I suppose those count. But DC pretty much gave up on The Spirit and Doc Savage, I guess.

• Thelonius Nick had this to say:
  

  1) DC’s new pricing policy (and Marvel’s unwillingness to really match it) will put it within spitting distance of #1 company by volume.

  Pretty sure they passed Marvel briefly, didn’t they? At any rate, they’re neck ‘n’ neck last time I checked.

  2) Marvel’s Fear Itself event will generate interest at first but fizzle out when it doesn’t offer anything new and all tie-ins are $3.99 or $4.99.

  The main Fear Itself series did okay, but the multiple minis were a bit too much, and didn’t do nearly as well. A lot of the tie-ins were $2.99, though, which was nice.

  3) The Cap and Green Lantern movies will do well at the box office without translating into any significant sales bump for their respective comic franchises. Thor’s Asgardian setting won’t translate well to the big screen and will be critically shunned and poorly attended.

  Swap “Green Lantern” for “Thor” and that’s pretty much what happened. Green Lantern‘s sales have remained strong, though not due to any movie bump. I didn’t notice any movie bump on any of these titles, actually.

  4) Marvel will continue to dick around with Dr. Strange in the pages of the Avengers and fail for yet another year to give him his own ongoing title. Pissed off Strangefans will hex Marvel by the powers of the Vishanti and the company will end the year in flames, literally.

  I don’t know if you would call Defenders his own ongoing title, but hey, it’s monthly and he’s in it. Fans are having some words about it, however.

• Buzz says
  

  Sudden & dramatic collapse of brick & mortar stores, both mainstream & speciality shops (such as comic book shops). Existing stores that survive will do so by either offering services to readers (such as B&N allowing one to browse through any e-book they offer while in their store, thus encouraging people to buy a Nook & regularly visit the B&N coffee shop; or in the case of comic book/pop culture stores to offer gaming, etc.).

  Stores are still hanging on so far, thankfully! Our store has offering gaming stuff for years, so a little diversification never hurt anyone. …Let’s see how things go this year, though. This is definitely an economic climate that is not friendly to small business.

• Ian @TRO says
  

  More Omnibi.

  Yeah, there were plenty of these. Even with the economy the way it is, we’re still getting plenty of high-end reprint projects from both Marvel and DC. Of course, no one’s buying these monsters at the suggested retail price (anywhere from $75 to $125), but still, these are some pricy items for this marketplace.

  More Vertigo characters in DCU.

  Thanks to the New 52 and Brightest Day, we’ve got…Shade the Changing Man, John Constantine, and that big green plant fella. At least.

  Hopefully more than one Milestone character gets an ongoing (IE, in addition to Xombi mini)

  Again, thanks to the New 52…just Static so far.

  Marvel will have some events.

  There was also some unrest in the Middle East, I understand.

• De delights in saying
  

  I have a sneaky suspicion that Dark Horse, of all companies, will revolutionize the digital comics arena. The comiXology model will remain the same for DC, Marvel, Image, and the rest for now.

  Dark Horse certainly stirred up some hoohar with their digital announcements, at any rate.

  The summer superhero movies will perform well enough but not fantastically, causing studios to mine more past properties in hopes of making a quick buck (get ready for the Strawberry Shortcake movie in 2012!).

  Most superhero movies did reasonably well, but studios mining past properties is probably just business as usual rather than a reaction to how the films did. More of a “what did well before? What else can we do that’s just like that?” situation.

  Marvel and DC will stop producing direct-to-video films as the public grows tired of the superhero genre.

  Not quite yet…I suspect that the superhero genre will play out eventually, but so long as there are still superhero films coming out that are relatively well done and entertaining, the occasional clunker of a film is just seen as “a clunker of a film” and not a death-knell for an entire genre.

  The recently announced Carl Barks collections by Fantagraphics will receive public attention on the Today Show via Al Roker and become selections in Oprah’s Book Club. The widespread exposure of clever humor and commentary by 50-year old Donald Duck comics create a nationwide movement of crazy alternative-energy initiatives and treasure hunting.

  In a good and just world, this is what would have happened.

• Googum contributes:
  

  Honestly? I reckon 2011 is just going to trundle along, without any monumental success (a new direct market comic breaks a million in sales or downloads first week) or colossal failures (DM collapses, Marvel or DC cancel 75% of their line) and be mostly more of the same. The water isn’t quite hot enough to boil that frog, but he hasn’t hopped out, either.

  In a way, DC did cancel about 75% of its line…and then replaced them with even more titles! The New 52 relaunch was probably the most notable success of the year, and one that I sure didn’t see coming.

  Marvel will have a mild uptick in trade sales for Thor and Captain America; but they’d have to, after flooding the market. Green Lantern may have a harder climb for that: imagine a mythical ‘new reader’ bounding out of the GL movie and into, say, Blackest Night. No.

  Marvel might have had some increase in trade sales, like you said. I did see an upswing in GL sales, mostly in Sinestro War and, yes, Blackest Night trades. And in reprints of the current (well, then-current) GL series.

  And even though it’s become obvious Comic-Con applause doesn’t translate directly into box office numbers, no one changes their behavior in the slightest. Well, you don’t have to be Karnak for that one…

  Weren’t there stories about some movie and TV companies slightly scaling back their Comic Con participation? I seem to recall that. But I bet you’re right, and people will still presume success based on fan reaction at events such as these.

• That Andres guy I put up with every week at the shop says
  

  DC’s $2.99 price point won’t hold. People will start predicting digital comics are just a fad (this is after sales die down like they have been for digital magazines).

  Well, it’s holding so far, despite, as mentioned before, having a couple of titles bumping up to the $3.99 level. We’ll see how things go over the next year or so. …And I’m sure folks are calling digital comics a “fad”…hell, comic books themselves are a fad from early last century that are still hanging on, somehow.

• Tom A foresaw
  

  Jack of Hearts is brought back to life and takes his rightful place among Marvel’s heavy hitters (2 series by end of year) Now to push for Stingray in 2012.

  Well, yeah, kinda. Not so much with the “heavy hitter” part.

• Matt Jeske sez
  

  …The Green Lantern movie will be critically panned, but commercially successful.

  You were half-right!

  The Superman books will reintroduce elements from the new krypton storylines.

  Blame the New 52 for getting in the way of this one.

  The Beat blog will return to be as interesting to read as it used to be.

  I’ll let you decide if this one is a “hit.”

• Frowny frowns
  

  1) At some point Grant Morrison will be done with Batman and then there will be incredibly ham handed attempts to return the character to the status quo in time for the new film.

  Morrison doesn’t appear to be quite done with Batman, but I’d say cancelling everything and doing a huge relaunch sort of counts as “hamhanded.”

  2) For some stupid reason, Steve Rogers will be back in the Captain America costume in time for the new film.

  I didn’t read it, so I don’t know how stupid the reasons were. But he’s back in costume now…right? Was it in time for the movie? I lost track.

• Former Employee Aaron drops this into my lap
  

  Doom and gloom predictions! Right before Skynet is activated and we all die in a fiery jamboree the $2.99 price point will be eradicated and all comics will cost $3.99 and up. On the brighter side i foresee more original graphic novel releases this year! Also I’ve been wondering how many different Batmen will we have in the Dcu.

  1. WRONG. 2. A FEW. 3. ONE. UNLESS YOU COUNT BATWING, THEN TWO. UNLESS BATMAN INC. STILL “COUNTS,” THEN LOTS.

• Wayne Allen Sallee writes in with
  

  …I know next to nothing about digital comics, but my guess is that Dark Horse or possibly Dynamite will move to that arena. I also predict that, given the storyline of Superman: Earth-One, that specific world will be DC’s Earth-1990s. (Not being snarky, I honestly believe that each Earth-One GN will be terrible.)

  Dark Horse certainly did. And…yeah, Superman: Earth One sure sold well, but boy did it get some negative reviews.

• ~P~ wrote some silly predictions, and then added
  

  Mike Sterling will email me to tell me how much I owe him for the variant editions he obtained for me.

  Right Mikester?

  …Um, oops?

• My new best friend whom I totally met in person just a few weeks ago philip says
  

  The gap between print and digital will continue to shrink, making more new books available sooner in digital format.

  “Day and date” seems to get thrown around a lot, so I’m guessing it’s shrunk as much as it’s going to (until “day and date before” becomes the norm).

  We’ll see the end of “events” for a while and a return to good, long-form storytelling (okay, that’s really a “hope” more than a prediction and though it is unlikely, please just let me have this).

  Oh, silly philip. Even DC’s relaunced universe has got somethin’ in the works.

  There will be just enough new work from Los Bros Hernandez to make me wish there was more new work from them.

  This is never not true. I always want more work from the Bros.

  DC will still not know what to do with Wonder Woman.

  I made my opinion on the topic clear, but it’s selling and everyone likes it, so pay no attention to me.

• Ben predicted
  

  DC will guerrilla market a one-shot via leaked uncolored pages, wherein Swamp Thing returns to the main DCU, but he is wearing tights and is traveling across America with his perky goth girlfriend Death. The comics intarwebs will collapse upon itself in an orgasm of hate.

  Then it will turn out to written by Grant Morrison and Warren Ellis over a weekend trapped at an airport hotel. It will be the single most awesome thing all year, but will fail to cover the authors’ expenses on alcohol.

  Wishing this were all true doesn’t make it so, alas. Except for the “collapsing in hate” part…I totally would have loved and supported this comic.

• Dan Wars blasted us with
  

  By the end of 2011, the original Fantastic Four will be reunited. Duh!

  Duh, indeed!

• Greg Merritt suggested
  

  Gin Genie will make her long-awaited return to the Marvel Universe.
  And then team up with Iron Man.

  You are a cruel man. Iron Man did team up with some booze, though, so you’re close. But sadly, Gin Genie is still dead.

• Mr. A says
  

  Without Dirk Deppey’s daily links roundup, traffic to TCJ.com will crash by at least 90%.

  I’m sure that wasn’t the case, but I certainly miss Mr. Deppey’s Journalista, as do many online comic fans.

• Gordon unleashes
  

  Smaller, more independent press comics focusing on non-superhero fare will begin to become more prevalent and receive more press, since superhero comics will be seen more as “movies-in-the-making”.

  Haven’t really seen this happen yet, as superheroes are more flashy and get more attention and thus make for better “news” stories in the Real World (which I’m assuming you’re meaning by “press”). But indie graphic novels and comics still get some good critical assessment in places like the A.V. Club and such, so they’re not being ignored. You’re just not likely to see the Associated Press syndicate a story about, I don’t know, a new issue of Palookaville (and more’s the pity).

  The trend towards “graphic novels” made specifically to be turned into other media (30 Days of Night, anyone?) will increase, with a plethora of celebrity-driven “vanity projects” arising (one example – Ron Jeremy’s CAPTAIN HEDGEHOG)

  Gah. …Anyway, I haven’t seen too many celebrity-spawned projects some down the pike. There’s Heart but that’s hardly taking the world by storm at the moment.

  The repeated use of ironic quotation marks, “…, anyone” and “meh” will gradually fade, as more articulate comics/pop culture aficionados emerge online, thereby causing nerd critical sites (and Mike Sterling’s Empire 4.0 tumbler thingie) to disappear.

  Estate 4.1, thank you, and it didn’t disappear…it was, um…resting. And I wish “meh” would fade, because seriously, that makes me want to hit someone with my truck.

  Next franchise for DC to exploit: Joel Schumaker’s SWAMP THING. (Sorry, Mike)

  As I said before…A+ WOULD SEE AGAIN.

  Dan DiDio and Brian Bendis will both wrestle a bear at a convention…and lose.

  If this happened and nobody told me, I’m going to be pissed.

  Finally, Mike Sterling will still be seen as the greatest comics blogger in the multiverse.

  I probably had a chance at that, except for the fact that this look back at 2011 predictions is going on for another day, at least.